Thursday, March 18, 2010

Intrade Odds for Obamacare Passing

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"The average member of Congress – House and Senate – is first and foremost only a self-serving inconvenience-minimizer who doesn't have a lot of principle they stand on in the first place. It doesn't take much to move a jellied spine, so they'll probably get their votes."

~Dick Armey speaking to the National Press Club yesterday, where he predicted that Congress will pass health care reform.

My predictions: a bill will be put on the President's desk by Monday either by vote or through the Slaughter rule, and signed early next week. This will trigger a Constitutional challenge by many of the States and certain advocacy groups. The case will make it to the Supreme Court, which will nullify the law if pass through the Slaughter rule, or if passed by vote the court will nullify many of its major provisions.

If the law survives these challenges intact, the US Government will lose its AAA credit rating, a number of the weaker states will teeter on the verge of bankruptcy due to the unfunded mandates, and taxes will be raised not only on wage earners of all levels either through increases in the federal income tax, the state income tax, other fees, and increases in payroll deductions, but also on investors through wealth taxes or applying payroll tax type of deductions to passive incomes such as capital gains and dividends.

Like most government programs, Obamacare will do the opposite of what is advertised: it will fail to provide any savings, will increase the costs of healthcare for all Americans, will require more legislative fixes and tweaking, and will create a thriving black market in health care services as consumers gravitate toward more cost effective and less bureaucratic solutions.

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